Exit polls reveal a shift in sentiment, indicating that the BJP’s grand plans for Kashmir may be derailing in the face of genuine public dissent.
| Much like the failed promises of empires past, the BJP’s grand vision of a ‘Naya Kashmir’ now finds itself at odds with the reality on the ground. With bold claims of renewed peace and development, the ruling party hoped to carve out a new chapter for the region. But, as history has shown, even the most well-laid plans can falter when faced with the will of the people, a lesson made clear by exit polls that favour the INDIA bloc over BJP’s narrative in Jammu and Kashmir. |
The BJP had carefully strategized to bolster its position in Jammu and Kashmir with solid legislative support, a plan that seemed well-executed in light of the Supreme Court’s 2023 verdict on Article 370. Article 324, which grants the Election Commission plenary powers over elections. The Court’s directive to hold elections in September 2024 is problematic, as no petitioner specifically requested this timeline; their focus has been on the constitutional validity of the abrogation of Article 370. This creates a discrepancy, as the Supreme Court is directing the Election Commission without a direct plea from any petitioner regarding the election date. A concern stems from the selection of September 2024 for the elections instead of aligning with the nationwide Lok Sabha elections in April 2024. This raises questions about the rationale behind choosing September and whether this decision was arbitrary.
It seems the BJP was intent on solidifying its grip on the Lok Sabha before turning its attention to the electoral process in Jammu and Kashmir, a calculated move that starkly prioritizes national ambitions over the urgent democratic needs of the region. Like a cunning predator, the BJP employed deception and betrayal in their hunt for electoral victory in Kashmir. In this section, we analyze it thoroughly.
- Divide and Rule Strategy: Farooq Abdullah accuses the BJP of employing a “divide and rule” policy in Kashmir, aimed at creating internal divisions within the Muslim population. The emergence of new political parties in Kashmir is seen as part of this strategy, which dilutes the influence of older, more established parties like the National Conference and the People’s Conference. By encouraging factionalism, the BJP can weaken unified opposition to its policies.
- New Constituencies: the 2022 Delimitation Commission’s work in Jammu and Kashmir, which resulted in the creation of seven additional constituencies. The decision to create six new constituencies in Jammu, a region with a Hindu majority, while offering only one in Kashmir, which has a Muslim majority, threatens electoral equity. This lopsided allocation reinforces a troubling trend of prioritizing Hindu political interests, effectively silencing the voices of Kashmiri Muslims and compromising their representation. According to the 2011 census, Kashmir’s population is approximately 6.8 million, while Jammu’s population is around 5.3 million. Despite having a larger population, Kashmir receives fewer constituencies, which raises questions about fair representation and political equity.
- New Electoral Strategy: The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Order (2020) facilitates the granting of domicile certificates to non-Kashmiris, allowing them to claim residency based on various criteria such as employment in the region or length of residence. In June, it was reported that about 25,000 people had secured domicile certificates under the new regulations, allowing them to seek jobs, buy land, vote, and own property in Kashmir.
but what derailed the BJP’s aspirations for Kashmir?
Failure to Win Over Kashmiri Sentiments, After the abrogation of Article 370, the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) framed themselves as protectors of Kashmiri identity and dignity. They argued that the BJP’s actions represented not just political tactics but assaults on the unique rights and identity of Kashmiris. This narrative resonates with many who feel alienated and threatened, appealing emotionally to voters concerned about their cultural survival.
Failure of Alliance
The BJP’s alliances in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly with the Apni Party and the People’s Conference, did not yield the expected results during the elections. Despite efforts to expand its political base beyond the traditional National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), these allied parties struggled to establish themselves as significant contenders against the entrenched political forces in the region. The NC and PDP maintained strong support due to their historical ties and established voter bases, while the newer alliances failed to resonate with the electorate. This inability to deliver tangible results or articulate a compelling alternative narrative left the BJP at a disadvantage, particularly as the NC and PDP effectively framed the BJP’s actions as detrimental to Kashmiri rights and identity.
The Need for an UN-Supervised Referendum
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions #91 (1951) and #122 (1957) establish a clear distinction between conducting elections in Kashmir and holding a referendum. The resolutions highlight that the question of Kashmir’s future should ultimately be determined through a referendum, not merely through elections. A referendum is a direct vote in which an entire electorate is invited to vote on a particular proposal and decide on issues of significant importance, such as the status of Kashmir. The statement asserts that such a referendum must be conducted under the supervision of the United Nations to ensure fairness and impartiality. Elections held in Kashmir cannot replace the need for this referendum. Essentially, they are seen as insufficient to address the broader question of Kashmir’s political status and the will of its people. UN supervision indicates that any process regarding Kashmir’s status must involve international oversight to ensure that the rights and voices of the Kashmiri people are respected.
Further the FIDH report (August 19, 2024) on Jammu and Kashmir, discusses alterations in land laws and residence rules, noting their potential impact on the region’s political makeup and electoral landscape. According to the report, since January 2023, the local administration has taken control of land equivalent to the size of Hong Kong, often under the pretext of removing illegal encroachments. The new land laws allow any Indian citizen to buy land in the region, raising concerns about demographic changes that threaten the identity of the Muslim-majority population. The report calls for independent investigations into these land seizures and for compensation for affected individuals If India genuinely demonstrates stability, the Indian government ought to have welcomed international media, such as bbc, which sought permission to cover the elections. This would enable them to engage with diverse communities.
